Paddy's London & Southern Counties Area - 2013

Paddy Flower

Active Member
The 'wise' money's saying a resumption of normal service is on the cards (but only just)

Line-ups checked against...
http://www.regional-contest.org.uk/lsc/grading/2012-grading-tableshttp://www.regional-contest.org.uk/yorkshire/recentgradings.php
with 4th section being a best guess based on previous years' entries...

Championship Section
Redbridge Brass9/4 F
Zone One Brass11/4
Wantage Silver11/2
Aveley & Newham13/2
Friary Guildford9/1
Medway11/1
Norfolk Brass25/1
Regent Brass28/1
Staines Brass28/1
Bedford Town28/1
East London Brass28/1
Clacton-on-Sea Co-operative33/1
Egham200/1
 

Paddy Flower

Active Member
First Section
Becontree Brass11/4 F
Sandhurst Silver7/2
Kidlington Concert Brass8/1
Haverhill Silver8/1
City of Cambridge9/1
Alder Valley11/1
Thundersley Brass14/1
Cawston16/1
Milton Keynes Brass18/1
Jersey Premier Brass20/1
Ipswich & Norwich Co-op22/1
Littleport Brass40/1
Horsham Borough40/1
Soham Comrades66/1
Yiewsley & West Drayton66/1
Chichester City150/1
 

Paddy Flower

Active Member
Second Section
Ware Brass6/1 F
Chalgrove15/2
Hungerford Town8/1
Fulham8/1
Colchester11/1
Northfleet Brass11/1
Hitchin Town11/1
Welwyn Garden City12/1
Denham Hendon Brass12/1
Battle Town18/1
Betteshanger Welfare22/1
Epsom & Ewell Silver22/1
Epping Forest25/1
St. Sebastian Wokingham28/1
Tilbury28/1
BAE Systems28/1
St. Albans City33/1
Grimsdyke Brass40/1
Fairlop Brass40/1
 

Paddy Flower

Active Member
Third Section
Olney Town9/2 F
L.G.B. Brass5/1
Norfolk Wherry Brass6/1
Wantage Silver 'B'13/2
Crystal Palace8/1
Waterbeach Brass10/1
Harwich R.B.L.11/1
Hangleton11/1
Amersham14/1
Cold Ash Brass18/1
Hemel Hempstead22/2
Chinnor Silver28/1
Watford33/1
Bradwell Silver50/1
Brighton & Hove City66/1
 

Paddy Flower

Active Member
Fourth Section
Bletchington Silver6/1 JF
Tadley Concert6/1 JF
Woodbridge Excelsior13/2
Great Yarmouth Brass8/1
Chatteris Town9/1
Simon Langton Brass9/1
Jubilee Brass (Oxford)12/1
Witney Town12/1
E.P.B. Brass16/1
Snowdown Colliery Welfare20/1
Royston20/1
Letchworth Garden City22/1
King's Lynn28/1
Cottenham28/1
Milton Keynes Development40/1
City of Oxford Silver40/1
Marsh Gibbon Silver100/1
Cobham100/1
North London Brass100/1
Martlesham Brass100/1
Charles Church Camberley150/1
 

MoominDave

Well-Known Member
Interesting question - I reckon you might get surprisingly decent odds on the two LSC qualifiers both finishing in the bottom three at the Albert Hall - it happened on Saturday, but the only other two instances of it happening since 1973 (which is as far back as brassbandresults has full placings for) occurred in 1997 (when the two qualifiers were the bottom two) and 1998.

The only other regions to have two qualifiers in the bottom three in that time span have been:
1974 - North of England
1975 - Wales
1976 - Scotland
1992 - Midlands
2006 - Wales
In three of those cases, there were more than two qualifiers from the respective region, which puts a different slant on things.
 

hobgoblin

Member
1973-L&SC1974 - North of England1975 - Wales1976 - Scotland1992 - Midlands1997-L&SC1998-L&SC2006 - Wales2012-L&SCSo it looks like this then?It would be interesting to see how often each area have just one in the bottom three or two in the bottom 5/6 ?
 

MoominDave

Well-Known Member
Don't know about 1973 - brassbandresults doesn't yet have the placings below 6th. i.e. L&SC are recorded as doing it 1997, 1998, 2012.
Also noticed one that I missed - 2002, two West of England bands in the bottom 3. So Yorkshire and the North West are the only two regions to have avoided doing this in the last 39 contests.

A quick tally (apologies for any counting errors, I did it by hand) -
How many times has each area had at least one band in the bottom three in the same timespan?
1 North of England: 27
2 L&SC: 24
3 Wales: 15
4 Scotland: 13
5 Midlands: 10
6 West of England: 8
7 NW: 5
8 Yorkshire: 2
How many times has each area had at least two bands in the bottom six in the same timespan?
1= North of England: 11
1= L&SC: 11
3= Wales: 6
3= Midlands: 6
5= Scotland: 3
5= West of England: 3
7 NW: 2
8 Yorkshire: 0
 
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MoominDave

Well-Known Member
Interesting that one of the weakest areas, the WoE, actually seems to rarely be in the bottom few!

The West has tended to have at least one band that is definite top ten material at any given time. I suppose it shows that there is quite a spread in the top section in the West? That would seem to tally with what I've seen over the last 10 years or so...
 

Laserbeam bass

Active Member
Any chance of odds for an accumulator style bet on the top 2 in L&SC and the bottom 3 at the Nationals?

So let me see if I can work out exactly what you want.

Scenario 1
You want to do a forecast on the two bands that qualify for the Albert Hall next year, then let the forecast dividend roll on to the odds for either or both to finish bottom three.

Top two finish would be at reduced odds against an actual win, as you are now betting on the selection achieving a place, which would then result in qualification.
Bottom three finish at the Albert Hall is also a multi-winner bet, where you would bet on the selection to finish 18/19/20 which again reduces the odds. This would then mean that you are betting at close to evens for the area, and well odds on for the finals.

As you appear to be inferring that the L&SC bands will finish in the bottom three, due to previous results, then this would become a related bet, and the odds for the combined outcome would be significantly reduced.

So on that basis, you would get about 1/2 for the bet.

Scenario 2
Not knowing who will win the L&SC area, you could bet on a bottom three finish for the two qualifying bands. This would reduce the price, but it would be around 8/11 each, but as they are both in the same market*, you would not be able to place an accumulator.

The reason that the acca would be allowed on scenario 1 would be the special price offered due to the related nature.

*Could be separate markets, but it would depend on how many markets Paddy is prepared to offer.

Anyway, the odds would not be brilliant, but I assume that was your point :tongue:
 

Bass Trumpet

Active Member
I would suggest, this is more of the usual 'L&SC Bands are rubbish' we tend to get from time to time. Yes, in the top section L&SC bands rarely make a mark, but there have been a few bloodied northern noses in some other competitions in recent years. I would point out that in sections 1-4, there appears to be quite an even spread across the regions. Over to the resident statistician Mr Dave Taylor, as I can't be bothered to look at the stats...
 

MoominDave

Well-Known Member
Winners over the last 20 years at the finals, since the establishment of the 1st section (my patience only stretches so far for our dear leader... I'll speak nicely to Tim the BBR man at some point to work similar questions out automatically.):


1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total
Scotland
0
0.5
1
0
1.5
North
1
2
0
0
3
Yorks
5
4
2
3
14
NW
5
2
8
8
23
Wales
4
5.5
1
2
12.5
Midlands
4
3
3
1
11
L&SC
1
0
3
3
7
West
1
4
3
4
12

So while L&SC bands have certainly made marks at various finals events in recent years, and have brought home more winner's medals than a couple of other regions, there's still room for improvement... The striking point about that table for me is the illustration of the strength in the lower sections in the NW.
 

HorniKaz

Supporting Member
Winners over the last 20 years at the finals, since the establishment of the 1st section (my patience only stretches so far for our dear leader... I'll speak nicely to Tim the BBR man at some point to work similar questions out automatically.):


1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Total
Scotland
0
0.5
1
0
1.5
North
1
2
0
0
3
Yorks
5
4
2
3
14
NW
5
2
8
8
23
Wales
4
5.5
1
2
12.5
Midlands
4
3
3
1
11
L&SC
1
0
3
3
7
West
1
4
3
4
12

So while L&SC bands have certainly made marks at various finals events in recent years, and have brought home more winner's medals than a couple of other regions, there's still room for improvement... The striking point about that table for me is the illustration of the strength in the lower sections in the NW.


Dave

Just a little error. Staines came 2nd in 2005 so that's a 2nd placing for a L&SC band.
 

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