Well, this is a bit of an 'out out out' cheerleading session thus far, isn't it... Depressing stuff.
I'll be voting 'In'. It is to me one of the most complete of no-brainers I've ever been asked. Some reasons:
1) Philosophically, those that seek to change the status quo must make a compelling case, otherwise the default is to continue as before. The Out campaign haven't. All the Out arguments I've seen have been far stronger on rhetoric than unarguable substance, a solid sign that they recognise that they must appeal to emotions rather than logic to win; this is a tactic guaranteed to turn off anyone who has rightly learned to mistrust a dodgy sales pitch. You don't roll the dice to gamble on something this big when the outcome is unclear - this is pretty basic, logically.
2) Scientific research is one of the few major fields in which the UK maintains a world-leading presence. Much of our system is EU funded, particularly junior research posts, which would immediately be imperilled. Do you trust our government to match the EU contributions to UK science out of saved fees? I do not even slightly - even supposing that we save anywhere near what optimistic Out cheerleaders promise (on the inaccuracy of which more below) . Collaboration in general would become immediately much more awkward -we would be competing across barriers that most of those that we compete with do not have. A vote to leave is a vote to deal massive blows to one of our strongest industries.
2a) I work
here. Until ITER comes online, this is the most prestigious international fusion collaboration in the world, a top-rank EU project situated in the UK, where it has for over 30 years provided stable and stimulating local employment. If we leave, nothing like this will ever come our way again, and how long do you think JET will stay open for? A vote to leave is a vote to threaten the personal employment circumstances of my colleagues and I severely.
3) We would not save much if indeed any money overall (we might lose some, in fact), while throwing away our current sizeable influence within the EU, and any goodwill that we have there. And that's not an argument that depends on trade figure changes. The UK annual contribution to the EU pot, after the rebate and the money we get back is subtracted off
is about £7.1B/year. Outside the EU, we would interact with it in the manner of countries such as Norway and Switzerland, subject to many of its rules, but without the ability to influence the setting of those rules. Norway pays in approximately
€866M/year, which equates to
about £680M. Sound relatively small? But Norway's population is only
5.1M, compared to our
64.1M. Per capita, that's
£134 per person per year for Norwegians currently. In contrast, the UK currently pays
£111 per person per year.
Each Norwegian currently pays more in than each UK citizen.
4) Leaving would destabilise us internally, for at least two reasons: i) Northern Ireland's been quiet recently, hasn't it? How well do you think that currently-placated Republicans will react to the border with the Republic becoming a real border again? A coincidence that
the threat level to the UK mainland from dissident Republican terrorists has just been raised? I wouldn't bank on it; ii) Scotland have just voted to stay with us, but
in no world are they going to vote to leave the EU in this referendum. A second Scottish independence referendum will become an inevitability if we vote to leave. Remember how well the first one turned out? How everyone felt energised and positive after it? No, me neither. And we didn't even have to go through the colossal PITA faff and stress of the actual separation after that one - a second vote after a vote to leave the EU would be nailed on for a 'yes' to secession.
There's some really solid show-stopping objections for you that ought to make anyone ponder before voting to roll the dice and gamble on uncertainty. Here's some more that offer pause for thought for those that like rhetoric:
1) Where is the world going? The sweep of history has been a movement from smaller to larger organisational levels., driven by the advantages created for those that have clumped together more. Those countries that have moved from large to small have swum against the tide, and been made to work extra hard for it.
2) The EU has coincided with and can quite plausibly take credit for a period of sustained peaceful relations in Western Europe unparalleled in history. At a time when the kind of frightened nationalist sentiment that results in wars is on the rise all over the continent, is it really any kind of a good idea to give this strong stabilising force a destabilising kicking?
3) Rupert Murdoch wants out. While I stand above (and urge you all to do the same) the trivial personality politics that have blighted this and every other public argument for donkey's years, this toxic and immensely powerful individual bears thinking about. This odious man who has devoted his life to being able to pull the puppet-strings of our government in the name of his highly regressive views said: "
When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice". He wants out because he'll find it easier to make us all jump to his vile tune via Cameron and the rest of our political class that live in his pocket.
4) Picking up on Mike's point further up the thread, one has to ask oneself whether one's views are better represented by the EU political class (who have bequeathed us various worker-protecting directives) or the UK political class (who currently seem obsessed with using the failed dogma of neoliberalism to dismantle and sell off for personal profit various long-cherished parts of the state built with the money of the people). Based on past and recent form I would far rather take my chances with the EU able to call some shots than with the UK abandoned to the Tory party for possible decades to come.
There are plenty more explicit useful things that we'd be throwing away (e.g. ease of international pursuit and justice), but I think that's enough for now. I hope this provides some kind of counterpoint to the thoughts above, the unanimity of which rather horrify me.