Old Paddy's Almanack 2010

[Paddy Flower]

I'm already on record with my thoughts on the destinations of various area titles next March, but what about later in the year? I'm going to pose a few questions and then answer them IMHO. I'd welcome comments and suggestions for other questions.

I'm going to start off with my predictions of who might be smiling at the Lower Section Nationals in 2010.

First Section
Hammonds Saltaire (Yorks) despite their recent problems the strongest of favorites, clearly NOT a first section band
Vernon Building Society Poynton (NW)
Barton Town (Nth)

Second Section
East London Brass (L&SC)
Frickley/South Elmsall (Yorks)
Brunel Brass (West) a possible double?

Third Section
Douglas Town (NW) they've been creeping under most people's radars
North Skelton (Nth)
Cubbington Silver (Mids)

Fourth Section
Boarshurst Silver (NW) also likely to be thumbing their noses at their area committee for relegating them. National favorites by a distance for me at the moment
Dronfield CMW (Mids)
Pontypool Brass (Wales)

[Paddy Flower]

And what about the most likely, newly prom/rel band taking a title...

Championship Section
prom Tongwynlais

First Section
rel (other than Hammonds) Aldborne (West)
prom Oldham Lees (NW) sorry Melingriffith

Second Section
rel Knottingly Silver (Yorks) or RAF St. Athan (Wal)
prom (other than Brunel) Coalburn Silver (Sco)

Third Section
rel Hoover Bolton (NW)
prom St. Breward Silver (West)

Fourth Section
rel (other than Boarshurst) Tayport Instrumental (Sco)

[Paddy Flower]

One last one for now, what about each regional's best hope of a winner in the lower sections?... (not including those already mentioned)

London & Southern Counties
Friary Guildford Brass (1st Section)

Midlands
Amington Brass (3rd Section)

North of England
East Riding of Yorkshire (4th Section)

North West
Hazel Grove Brass (4th Section)

Scotland
Renfrew Burgh (3rd Section)

Wales
Tylorstown (2nd Section)

West of England
St. Austell (1st Secion)

Yorkshire
Strata Brass (2nd Section)

[iancwilx]

You don't reckon Yorkshire Imps will do anything in the 1st Section then ?

It's going to be a tough call for most of the 1st Section bands at the Yorkshire Area with Hammonds and Imps in the line up.

- Mr Wilx

[Paddy Flower]

You don't reckon Yorkshire Imps will do anything in the 1st Section then ?

It's going to be a tough call for most of the 1st Section bands at the Yorkshire Area with Hammonds and Imps in the line up.

- Mr Wilx

I think it's likely Imps will go to the finals with Hammonds, but it's HS that are more likely to a 'Tong' than Imps repeating their own feat of 2005. Maybe I should have added their name to that of Aldbourne

I don't think the two will have it all their own way, Stocksbridge are likely to have a say, as are Hebden Bridge & Holme Silver who've both improved over the last few years.

[Getzonica]

Out of curiousity, how do you work out the predictions?

[Paddy Flower]

Out of curiousity, how do you work out the predictions?

I have answered this one on another thread, but I cant find which one.

Basically I do a full study of all contest results and collate a form table based on those results. I use the ratings I come up with to work out a likely win percentage for each band entering a contest and then convert these percentages to betting odds. Simple really

[Getzonica]

I have answered this one on another thread, but I cant find which one.

Basically I do a full study of all contest results and collate a form table based on those results. I use the ratings I come up with to work out a likely win percentage for each band entering a contest and then convert these percentages to betting odds. Simple really

cool

[Alyn James]

[quote=Paddy Flower;718029]And what about the most likely, newly prom/rel band taking a title...

Championship Section
prom Tongwynlais
:pig :icon_cheesygrin:

[Paddy Flower]

[quote=Paddy Flower;718029]And what about the most likely, newly prom/rel band taking a title...

Championship Section
prom Tongwynlais
:pig :icon_cheesygrin:

Lol Alyn

I should have qualified that 'prediction' by saying that Tong would (in fairness) be the least likely of the promoted bands to win their National

[Columbo]

[quote=Paddy Flower;718036]One last one for now, what about each regional's best hope of a winner in the lower sections?... (not including those already mentioned)


North West
Hazel Grove Brass (4th Section)

Not Boarshurst, no disrespect to Hazel Grove, as they are quality at this level, but surely Boarshurst are fancied here? Could be close one then!

[towse1972]

Read the very 1st post Jason. It explains everything.....

[Paddy Flower]

From post #1



Fourth Section
Boarshurst Silver (NW) also likely to be thumbing their noses at their area committee for relegating them. National favorites by a distance for me at the moment
Dronfield CMW (Mids)
Pontypool Brass (Wales)

You may blush at your leisure Columbo....

[Kofi]

I think what you do is brilliant, I just hope to see my band feature in the years to come...

Incidentally, you said on another post that you get the gradings from the area websites. So far there are no tables on www.sbba.org.uk (http://www.sbba.org.uk) so is there somewhere else you got that or am I clicking the wrong links??

Cheers

[towse1972]

From post #1



You may blush at your leisure Columbo....
Jason doesnt blush..He has more front than Blackpool! A legend in his own front room! ;)

[Columbo]

:-)

[towse1972]

:-)
And on the very distinguished conducting front.....????

[towse1972]

I assume with all these very timid responses you are;
a) trying to remain dignified! lol
b) waiting for someone to say what a nice geezer you are.

How long till your conducting someone else Columbo....or ditching ashton when the pressures of working nd banding take their toll.....i wait with baited breath about any developments regarding your distinguished banding career! ;)

[Alyn James]

Columbo strikes me as being an uncommonly nice geezer.

[Columbo]

Columbo strikes me as being an uncommonly nice geezer.

Thank you Alyn. You are correct of course. Seasons Greetings and all the best for 2010. No one is impressed by her bullying ways.

[Columbo]

I assume with all these very timid responses you are;
a) trying to remain dignified! lol
b) waiting for someone to say what a nice geezer you are.

How long till your conducting someone else Columbo....or ditching ashton when the pressures of working nd banding take their toll.....i wait with baited breath about any developments regarding your distinguished banding career! ;)

:-)

[Alyn James]

Thank you Alyn. You are correct of course. Seasons Greetings and all the best for 2010.
HNY to you too. Whilst we're on the subject of being nice geezers and still full of Goodwill, d'ya wanna buy a great new CD which has just been released by Tongwynlais Band? You can find details on our website ;)

[2nd man down]

Can we keep on topic please.

Any more bitter or obviously goading posts will be deleted.

Thanks,
2md.

[Alyn James]

Can we keep on topic please.

Any more bitter or obviously goading posts will be deleted.

Thanks,
2md.

Sorry I went off topic... just trying to plug the new T'lais CD (which is OUT NOW). It's a sweet job - nothing bitter about the new T'lais CD at all....;)..A Happy New Year's listening for all the family to enjoy.:)

[Beesa]

Fourth Section
Boarshurst Silver (NW) also likely to be thumbing their noses at their area committee for relegating them. National favorites by a distance for me at the moment

Surely they were relegated only according to the rules because they had low aggregate points.

No disrespect to Boarshurst, I'm sure they will bounce back again - roll on March!!

[towse1972]

Boarshurst are a solid team. The aggregate system does this from time to time. 3 years results together sometimes punish for past weakness. The cream rises back to the top pretty quickly though and my money will be on Boarshurst for the area.

[Paddy Flower]

I think what you do is brilliant, I just hope to see my band feature in the years to come...

Incidentally, you said on another post that you get the gradings from the area websites. So far there are no tables on www.sbba.org.uk (http://www.sbba.org.uk) so is there somewhere else you got that or am I clicking the wrong links??

Cheers

Always nice to add another member of the fan club, thanks Kofi.

Either I'm going mad (which isn't out of the question) or the sbba site has taken off the grading tables, i'm sure they were there explaining everything a month or two ago.

What is still there is an explaination of their unique (and better IMHO) way of promoting and relegating.

[Paddy Flower]

Boarshurst are a solid team. The aggregate system does this from time to time. 3 years results together sometimes punish for past weakness. The cream rises back to the top pretty quickly though and my money will be on Boarshurst for the area.

Agreed, they are a clear example of why area contests alone should not decide grading, but this is for another thread me thinks

[Alyn James]

[quote=Paddy Flower;718029]And what about the most likely, newly prom/rel band taking a title...

Championship Section
prom Tongwynlais
:pig :icon_cheesygrin:

Just got back from Swansea Airport. The family pig is really enjoying his microlight lessons....:D