tMP Modelling

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Chat' started by bigmamabadger, May 11, 2005.

  1. bigmamabadger

    bigmamabadger Active Member

    Could one of you geek-types write something to model traffic on tMP? I'm sure John has something that does a similar job, but we need a predictive model, I feel.
    You see, sometimes there's hordes of people on here and sometimes I feel very alone. It should be possible to predict which nights are band nights up and down the country, and what time most people get home from work/pub.
    A fairly chaotic system, I grant you, but surely we have a chaos theory BOC on here somewhere?:p

    I am the scientific badger. Not...

    P.S. And I do not eat mice. Unless in sweet and sour sauce with prawn crackers
  2. yonhee

    yonhee Active Member

    You should set up a poll with all the days of the week and people can tick whichever ones band practice is on.
  3. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

    I already did that in about January, but CBA to find it.
  4. WoodenFlugel

    WoodenFlugel Moderator Staff Member

    Yonhee, there is already a trhead asking which nights people rehearse here...

    (the poll could do with changing into a multiple choice one - I might do that if the thread takes off again)

    ...but I don't think thats really what BMB was after, more an idea of when the peak times are for online numbers.
  5. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

  6. WoodenFlugel

    WoodenFlugel Moderator Staff Member

  7. TheMusicMan

    TheMusicMan tMP Founder Staff Member

    Here you go... breakdown of visits/pages et al by hours of day... this any good?

  8. JessopSmythe

    JessopSmythe Active Member

    From the above, it is possible to deduce that the average tMPer does naff all work during the day;)
  9. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

    Well spotted JS ;)

    Although looking above the peaks at 7/8 am and 5/6 pm...I'm not convinced it matches what I have seen on tMP.

    John...what is the time zone for the above? (ie is noon = noon GMT, BST?)

    On my old band websites the Statistics showed that it was most active from 5 am - 9pm at night. Once I saw the little loophole that it was all in Pacific Standard Time (3 hours off) meaning the traffic was from 8 am - midnight, it made a lot mor sense.
  10. TheMusicMan

    TheMusicMan tMP Founder Staff Member

    Good qn Pat... looking at that now I'd guess it was CET... so add 5/6 hours on to those shown to get GMT equivalents.

    Well spotted matey...
  11. Owen S

    Owen S Member

    John, Central European Time is 1 hour ahead of the UK. Do you mean EST (Eastern Standard Time)?

    What this means is the peaks at 7 and 8 are lunchtime, the peak at 11 is when younger members get home from school. I can only guess the peaks at 17 and 18 are for people logging on just before bed, but they might be people actually on EST logging in once they get home from work.
  12. HBB

    HBB Active Member

    Too many time zones and numbers... all I know is I'm most active from 9am - 9pm! :)
  13. TheMusicMan

    TheMusicMan tMP Founder Staff Member

    Oops.... got the acronym wrong... I meant central USA time... whatever the acronym for that is...

    Sorry.... :redface:
  14. Owen S

    Owen S Member

    Central Standard Time (CST) is six hours different, Eastern is five. Take your pick. :)
  15. HBB

    HBB Active Member

    I was going to say, I'm usually always on at 22hrs, but as the 22hrs in the image is actually 4am!
  16. bigmamabadger

    bigmamabadger Active Member

    I guess that's the kind of thing I was looking for, but unless we can agree a time zone, I'm still in the dark...

  17. Owen S

    Owen S Member

    Well, it's very busy at lunchtime, in the afternoon and at about 10pm, and fairly busy from 9am to midnight.

    The timing of the lunchtime peak makes me pretty sure it's five hours different.
  18. TheMusicMan

    TheMusicMan tMP Founder Staff Member

    It is only thr acronym I was unsure of Rebecca... it is definately -5 hours. tMP Servers are in Texas.
    Last edited: May 12, 2005
  19. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

    Texas is Central Time (6 hours off)
  20. yorkie19

    yorkie19 Active Member

    To do some decent modelling on when the site is busy, you'd need to know the hits per hour across a period of time (say a week, or better still, a month) so you could start to pick up the trends. That would be a starting point.

    For example, the graph suggests that usage tails off after 8pm everynight. However, it may be that 11pm Friday is a very popular time.

    As you got more data, you'd be able to model even more effectively as the extremes would be smoothed out and any seasonal trends would be countered (eg the run up to the Areas.).

    It's certainly do-able as a piece of work.


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