Tips for the National?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Chat' started by Paddy Flower, Apr 6, 2011.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    It's the big one on Saturday and there's enough REAL bookmakers out there without me quoting on all 40 runners.

    What's everyone's thoughts? we haven't had a back-to-back winner since Red Rum and Don't Push it is 12/1 most places at the moment

    As for me? Well I usually back whoever Ruby Walsh is riding at that means The Midnight Club HOWEVER I also make it rule never to bet on the favourite around Aintree so my tip is Ballabriggs, the Irish are on fire at the moment and Jason Macguire is due a win around the big fences, 14/1 most places (snap that up now as it WILL shorten before race day). I'm starting to sound like Garry Wiltshire now...

    C'mon then, who are you backing and why?
  2. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    Taking into account averages of age, weight carried, price, form and jockey, based on the last 10 and 20 years winners,

    Age 10
    Weight 10-9
    Best Price 13/1
    Jockey S. Whaley-Cohen
    Country trained in Ireland

    My tip is Oscar Time

    Whaley-Cohen won the Gold Cup in fine style.
    Irish horseS often win
    Based on trends it meets all three of the values for my criteria.

    For an E/W I would get on Silver by Nature
    Only thing against is that it is a grey, and this would be the first grey in 50 years to win since Niclaus Silver in 1961, prior to that, it was The Lamb in 1871.

    Outsider with a chance, check the bookies are paying 5 places, still worth it with 4!
    In Compliance
    This meets most of my criteria, except price, best of 66/1 worst 33/1.
    This is one of the 11 offspring that Old Vic has sired, and three of his horses have accounted for two of the last three winners, and two of the last three runners up.

    Last one is Northern Alliance - One if my colleagues has backed this @ 33/1. He also backed Mon Mome in 2009 :eek: and didn't tell anyone :mad:

    Those are my choices, and will probably all be down by the Chair :( or will go on to fill the first four places :biggrin:
  3. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    And we haven't had a winner of 11-06 or greater since Red Rum 1977 carrying 11-08 and in 1974 carrying 12-00.

    I think Don't Push It will struggle with the top weight, but will beclose on the day. McCoy will want to prove that his win last year was not a fluke.
  4. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    I don't think the office sweep stakes have taken place yet, hence no reponses :tongue:
  5. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    First day on the BBC today so some people will start thinking about it soon. I was smiling today until Denman...

    (Hoping Jason Macguire OK to ride Ballabriggs on Saturday)
  6. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    Big Bucks and Zankandar both @ 4/6. Denman losing wasn't a bad thing :cool:

    In relation to my tips, I have set a new record :eek: Northern Alliance didn't make the cut :(
  7. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Leaving a darn good jockey (Barry Geraghty) without a ride, surely he's now 1st reserve for a number of horses...
  8. Cornet_Matt

    Cornet_Matt Member

    Ballabriggs does look a good horse, and I couldn't resist going for Donald McCain with all that family history behind him! I'm hoping Jason Macguire will be fit, he was looking well riding yesterday, so fingers crossed for that!

    I've also gone for Character Building because I've always supported the grey horses, and with it coming seventh last year, and still getting better, there could be a possible success here!

    I've also backed Ruby Walsh on Midnight Club, as he has been in fantastic form at Aintree, and I know you shouldn't go off that, but I couldn't think of anyone better to bring the favourite home!
  9. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Paddy is on fire!!!


    We are two happy people Matthew. I'm £140.00 richer, you?
  10. Bass Man

    Bass Man Active Member

    My donkey fell at the 4th fence, I've had no luck on the national since Monty's Pass won it a few years back
  11. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    Should've listened to you Paddy :(

    Still got Second and went for State of Play as a back up to Northern Alliance :biggrin:
  12. mjwarman

    mjwarman Member

    Thank you Paddy!! Ballabriggs £20 to win makes me a bit richer! Also had a fiver on both Oscar time and State of play each way so i'm more than happy!!!
  13. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    To do better than break-even is always an achivement

    Wow nearly a full house. I backed Don't push it on betfair at 7/2 to place as Gary Wilshire was convinced it would start favourite, my plan was to lay it at a shorter price (thus getting a free bet effectively), unfortunately it kept drifting so I didn't bother with the lay in the end, so that was more happiness :biggrin:

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