Scottish championships predictions

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Neillyboy, Feb 23, 2014.

  1. Statto

    Statto Member

    Messages:
    175
    That's a good spot Dave. Same conductor, same peripatetic teaching system, but the school band connected to Kilmarnock CB only geographically.

    Kingdom might like to claim that one but definitely doesn't count:)

    Probably quite a rare feat nationally. Maybe Hammonds, or Grimethorpe, but can't think of too many more possibilities.
     
  2. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

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  3. Statto

    Statto Member

    Messages:
    175
    Grimey, 1967!
     
  4. Statto

    Statto Member

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    175
    and YBS in 2004. Och, it's commonplace:) but still, well done Tullis.
     
  5. lynsey83

    lynsey83 Member

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    55
    Location:
    Shotts, Scotland
    So what does this all mean for promotion/relegation across the sections? Do SBBA still offer a year's grace for newly promoted bands? Not that this impacts us. Shotts are pretty disheartened with our result but we'll get there lol!
     
  6. Statto

    Statto Member

    Messages:
    175
    Not any more, see here

    Nothing confirmed as yet, but I understand that Newtongrange and Johnstone will both be straight back down to the 1st section, with Lochgelly staying up by a very close margin.
     
  7. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

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    Quite right - top job from them. It's still pretty rare - here's a list of all the instances that I can find, bearing in mind that we're missing a fair bit of earlier data:
    1966, Mid: City of Coventry (C, 4)
    1967, Yorks: Grimethorpe (C, 3)
    1973, Mid: City of Coventry (C, 2)
    1978, L&SC: Solent (4, Y)
    1979, Mid: Corby Beanfield School (3, Y) - same band in both sections
    1985, N Mid: Desford (C, 4)
    1986, Yorks: Drighlington (4, Y)
    1987, N Mid: Desford (C, Y)
    1988, L&SC: Castle Point (4, Y)
    1993, L&SC: Medway (1, 4)
    2001, Wales: Beaumaris (1, 3)
    2004, NW: Pemberton (1, 4)
    2004, Yorks: YBS (C, 2)
    2009, WoE: Camborne (C, 2)
    2013, NoE: NASUWT Riverside (C, 3)
    2014, Scot: Tullis (2, 3)

    So we know of 16 occasions when one organisation took home two titles from the same area contest. 5 of these involved the youth section, and 1 of those involved the same band competing twice. Every area has seen it happen at least once to our knowledge, with the exception of the short-lived and now defunct South Midlands and North Wales areas. By my calculations, that means it happens once in about every 35 instances of an area contest, though there are almost certainly earlier instances that we don't yet know about that will bring that number down. Tullis's feat is unique among the adult band examples in that the higher band is at second section level - it's never happened before without the higher band being in a higher section than that, which I think is a reflection of the fact that Tullis have been pretty unlucky at the Scottish in recent years.

    The next challenge for them is to repeat the feat at the finals! That has never been done, not in the post-war areas/nationals format, not in the Crystal Palace festival format stretching back to 1900, nor in Enderby Jackson's national contests in the 1860s.
     
  8. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

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    May have spoken too soon - Desford Youth won the youth section finals in 1987 at the RAH on Gareth Wood's This Happy Island, and were followed on stage later by their senior band, Desford Colliery Dowty, who famously won the championship section finals on Harmony Music.
     
  9. johnmartin

    johnmartin Active Member

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    Location:
    Lochgelly
    Why does this myth of a years grace continue to persist. There has never in all my years of contesting been any such thing. Relegations are worked out solely on the grading points awarded for positions at the three most recent Scottish Championship performances. Where a band has changed section in any of the preceding two years an average mark is awarded.
     
  10. lynsey83

    lynsey83 Member

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    55
    Location:
    Shotts, Scotland
    Only asking a question John :-?
     
  11. Hsop

    Hsop Member

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    63
    Hi Lynsey,

    did you play well? I missed the 2nd section!
     
  12. lynsey83

    lynsey83 Member

    Messages:
    55
    Location:
    Shotts, Scotland
    The band played extremely well and have worked hard over the past few months so rather gutted to come 6th again! However, we're in a good place so onwards and upwards!
     
  13. chingchongchew

    chingchongchew Member

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    38
    Location:
    Durness Scotland
    I saw on 4 bars rest that some big contest was on at the weekend so i went along to hear some great music played.
    I heard all the bands in the Championship section and the winning band were very well organised and the conductor Dr.Nick Childs certainly knew how the music went.
     
  14. Statto

    Statto Member

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    175
    Must admit John, I too thought that there was a grace period at one time as well but maybe it was simply that under the old 'unweighted' method, a promoted band seldom, if ever, went straight back down. Nowadays, with the most recent year counting double, it's very difficult to survive when placed in the bottom two. Not sure if the new system has helped tbh, as it seems to have increased the yo-yo-ing between sections for certain bands. I haven't done any analysis but I wonder if Scottish bands yo-yo significantly more than bands in other areas (where promotion is over 2-3 years)? Another one for Dave Taylor perhaps:)
     
  15. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

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    Hello! Haven't done any analysis on it, but it certainly seems that they do anecdotally. Just look at D&M, for example.
     
  16. johnmartin

    johnmartin Active Member

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    Location:
    Lochgelly
    Think I mentioned elsewhere recently that the last year that both promoted bands stayed in the section was 2011 when both Lochgelly and Bo'ness stayed up having been promoted the previous year. Bo'ness only dropped down again last year and we are still in there fighting. Also in 2012 and 2013 at least one of the promoted bands (KKB and Clacks) have stayed for more than one year; and with their results this year they will extend that stay for a bit longer.
     
  17. johnmartin

    johnmartin Active Member

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    Location:
    Lochgelly
    The double points system does seem to adversely penalise the bands that finish in the bottom two places. It is unusual for a band finishing in those two places to survive. The tenth placed band will almost certainly go down and ninth placed can survive if they have a good placing from the previous year and if other results go for them.
     
  18. johnmartin

    johnmartin Active Member

    Messages:
    1,816
    Location:
    Lochgelly
    I should add that I am an advocate for changing the promotion criteria. I have always thought that our system of promoting the top two does us no favours at National level because our representatives are invariably up against more experienced bands. Any band on its day can have a good result and suddenly find themselves in a section that they are not really ready for (happened to us). Promoting bands based on the grading points over three years would seem to be a more sensible option. If such a system had been in use this year then there are a couple of second placed bands who could enjoy a trip to Cheltenham but would not have been promoted. Also reducing the section size to 8 and relegating one band based on Scottish result with the second bottom ranked band then going into a playoff with the second top ranked band from the 1st section would seem to be a sensible option. We seem to be getting things right at the lower level with 14 bands in the 4th section so now would seem to be a good time to revisit the section sizes higher up the tree. Unfortunately every time this question has come to a vote at the SBBA AGM it has been soundly defeated because bands are too fixated on their own place in the pecking order rather than the common good.
     
  19. Statto

    Statto Member

    Messages:
    175
    Quick analysis.

    Bands finishing 9th and 10th in the Scottish Championship section have been relegated every year now since 2009. Dunaskin placed 9th in 2008 and survived.
     
  20. Kilted-Cornet

    Kilted-Cornet New Member

    Messages:
    21
    Location:
    Aberdeen
    I've done some quick sums (sorry if they're wrong) and it looks like Granite City and Bon-Accord go into the 2015 Championships in tied 8th place in the gradings based on average placings in 2013 and 2014 and leaving 2015 blank, with Lochgelly in 10th. Not sure if this was the intention when SBBA moved to the weighted results system, but it does seem a little unfair to me (as a member of Bon-Accord) that we start almost in the relegation zone before playing a note. In the good old unweighted days, the new arrivals at least started in the middle of the table. I don't think it always works out this way, but the combination of results over the last two years is unusual in some respects.

    That said, it is nigh on impossible to stay up with a 9th or 10th place anyway, so we just need to make sure we avoid that end of the results!
     
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