Paddy's Open 09

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Aug 27, 2009.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Taking some feedback into account, some further research and allowing for tmp predictions here's the latest prices for Birmingham

    Cory - 3/1 fav (from 11/4)
    Black Dyke - 4/1 (9/2)
    Fodens - 11/2
    Brighouse & Rastrick - 14/1 (18/1)
    Grimethorpe Colliery - 14/1 (16/1)
    Hepworth - 16/1 (14/1)
    Rothwell Temperance - 25/1 (28/1)
    Fairey - 40/1 (33/1)
    Leyland - 40/1 (50/1)
    Desford Colliery - 50/1 (33/1)
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - 50/1
    Virtuosi GUS - 66/1 (40/1)
    Scottish Co-op - 66/1
    Brisbane Excelsior - 100/1 (66/1)
    Kirkintilloch - 100/1 (66/1)
    BTM - 100/1 (66/1)
    Whitburn - 350/1 (250/1)
    Hammonds Saltaire - 500/1 (350/1) just for you columbo!!
  2. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    9 days to go, here's the latest look at this market

    Cory - 3/1 fav
    Black Dyke - 7/2 (from 4/1) steady shortening here, might be jt favs at the next update
    Fodens - 11/2
    Brighouse & Rastrick - 11/1 (14/1)
    Grimethorpe Colliery - 12/1 (14/1)
    Hepworth - 20/1 (16/1) best value price of the field IMHO
    Rothwell Temperance - 28/1 (25/1)
    Fairey - 40/1
    Leyland - 40/1
    Desford Colliery - 50/1
    Virtuosi GUS - 66/1
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - 66/1 (50/1)
    Co-op Funeralcare - 100/1 (66/1)
    Brisbane Excelsior - 100/1
    BTM - 150/1 (100/1)
    Kirkintilloch - 200/1 (100/1)
    Whitburn - 200/1 (350/1)
    Hammonds Saltaire - 500/1

    The 3 scots bands all played at Land of Burns and the result (Whitburn's win) has been taken into account

    Which area is going to have an Open champion in 2009?

    Yorks - 11/10 fav
    Wales - 3/1
    North West - 4/1
    NOT one of these 3 areas - 16/1
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2009
  3. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    20 quid on hepworth to place in the top 3 wins me what?

    Also, what odds on Hammonds surprising you and making the top 10? That'd be worth a fiver....
  4. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    E/W 25% odds on a top FOUR finish

    £20 e/w would be £10 win @ 20/1 = £210
    £10 place @ 5/1 = £60

    so £270 for a win, £60 for a place

    I do believe Hepworth are the value bet, 20/1 is a great price

    Hammonds to finish top 10? Not optimistic DOUBLE AXMINSTER 33/1
    A deep-sea-diver would win you £170
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2009
  5. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    7 days to go and there are a few movers

    Black Dyke - Burlington Burtie!! 100/30 (from 7/2) in from 9/2 a week ago, they're coming!
    Brighouse & Rastrick - 10/1 (11/1) another popular mover, 18/1 this time last week
    Fairey - 33/1 (40/1)
    Desford Colliery - 66/1 (50/1)
    Brisbane Excelsior - 150/1 (100/1)
    Kirkintilloch - 150/1 (200/1)
    BTM - 200/1 (150/1)

  6. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    And how about a new name on the famous old shield?

    For one of these...
    Brisbane Excelsior
    Co-op Funeralcare
    Desford (Believe it or not, no win yet, best of 2nd in '79)
    Hepworth (best chance @ 20/1)

    Or what I shall call..
    Be gentle with us, it's out first time

  7. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    My twenty-five brick is in the post.... ;-)
  8. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    Now that is generous. Personally I would have gone for 1/5 odds as it is a non handicap, but what do I know :wink:
  9. Phil85

    Phil85 New Member

    is this real? can you actually bet on a brass band contest?
  10. defnotsimon

    defnotsimon Member

    I dont know about here but in Australia you can have a bet on anything at all. If there are enough people wanting to put money on it, normally any more than 2, you can put a bet on two flys walking up a wall.
  11. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Alas nay Phil. You just wager your reputations (and mine).

    I can't see the grey suits actually allowing their events to be bet on which I understand would be paramount to a gambling license being granted. Maybe one day you'll see us among the trade stands taking bets but not for a long while yet
  12. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    a good chance of 3-score coming back your way.

    Hepworth ARE going to do something, remember where you heard it first
  13. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    4 days to go, here's the latest betting

    Cory - 100/30 jt fav (from 3/1) drifted slightly, now jt favs with Dyke, s'gonna be a cracker
    Hepworth - 22/1 (20/1) still no love for Compo & Cleggy's men, are you kidding? GET ON THEM NOW!!, trust me, E/W bet of the decade.
    Rothwell Temperance - 33/1 (28/1)
    BTM - 150/1 (200/1)
    Hammonds Saltaire - 350/1 (500/1)
    Good to see a little confidence in some of the outsiders

    And what about a new recipient of the Mortimer Maestro Award? Some illustrious names yet to get their hands on a 'Harry'

    BTM - Tom Davoren (one for the future perhaps)
    Brisbane Excelsior - Howard Taylor
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - Russell Gray (it would'nt be the first time he's pulled-off a suprise with the stick now would it?)
    Co-operative Funeralcare - Michael Fowles
    Fairey - Philip Chalk
    Grimethorpe Colliery - Allan Withington (despite SIX nationals successes!!!. Best odds of this group too @ 12/1)
    Hammonds Saltaire - Morgan Griffiths
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - Ian Porthouse
    Kirkintilloch - Selmer Simonsen
    Leyland - Jason Katsikaris (Another antipodean winner? - last one Prof Dave with YBS in 2003)
    Rothwell Temperance - David Roberts
    Virtuosi GUS - John Berryman
    Whitburn - Steven Mead (amazingly never a winning player)

    Any one of these to win - 11/10

    Last time there was a new winner? - Dr Nick with Dyke in 2005

    Last edited: Sep 8, 2009
  14. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    If you asked "Paddy Power" they would probably quote you a price or two in their novelty bets.

    Yes, it's called Betfair

    Forget the trade stands, you should be in front of the stage. That would be like betting on the rails. "Betting in Play" would take on a whole new meaning. Split note odds lengthen, blinding sop pp top c odds shorten
  15. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    Hmmm... Hepworth gone out to 22-1

    Fodens at 11-2, Grimey at 12-1, briggus at 10-1..... although none of these have beaten Hepworth so far this year in any time they've gone head to head....

    OK, the Dave King factor at briggus is an unknown quantity but still, 22-1 is looking a very good price!
  16. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    I cannot agree with you more 13. I had them originally at 14/1 and have been tracking the tmp predictions to adjust the prices as we go hence their drift out to 22/1 whilst the more illustrious bands (such as B&R) continue to shorten in this market.
  17. Phil85

    Phil85 New Member

  18. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    We'd have to stay quiet thou during the performance. I'd really have to bone-up on my trackside 'tic-tac' sign language
  19. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

  20. Nijinsky

    Nijinsky New Member

    Just been reading the form...

    Do Fodens get longer odds because Alan Wycherley has more or less conceded on a website that he can't play his part for the Open because it's too high and loud? Not heard the piece but my money is on Grimethorpe if this is the case.

    Piccollo trumpets... Give it a rest. I don't know any sop players who are posh enough to play one of those!

    Come on the pit boys!