Paddy's English Nationals 2010

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Jan 21, 2010.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Out comes the crystal ball for an ante-post look at Preston

    Black Dyke - 5/4 fav
    Foden’s - 9/4
    Brighouse & Rastrick - 7/1
    Leyland - 12/1
    Reg Vardy - 22/1
    Rothwell Temperance - 33/1
    Fairey (Geneva) - 40/1
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 40/1
    Flowers - 50/1
    Virtuosi GUS - 50/1
    Camborne - 50/1
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - 50/1
    Wingates - 66/1
    Hammonds Saltaire - 150/1
    Pemberton Old Wigan DW - 150/1
    Zone One Brass - 150/1

    The Fancys - 2/13 fav
    (up to 10/1)

    From the Pack - 11/2
    (11/1 - 33/1)

    An Outsider - 5/1
    (40/1 or longer)
     
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  3. sbandsman

    sbandsman Member

    £10 on the outsider please
     
  4. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    you think there's a suprise coming? Could happen, certainly
     
  5. sbandsman

    sbandsman Member

    With that spread of bets 40/1 + you leave some "good quality" in the mix.;)
     
  6. Vegasbound

    Vegasbound Active Member

    Zone one ...good value each way!!
     
  7. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    What's the odds on somebody (anybody) other than Black Dyke?
     
  8. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    well as they're 5/4 - i guess that would be 4/5...
     
  9. tkhbss

    tkhbss Member

    ??? So anyone other than Brighouse would be 1/7 ????? Think not, surely
     
  10. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    I don't understand calculating odds well enough.

    I was hoping if dyke were 5/4 to win it, you could get 5/1 that they wouldn't but it clearly doesn't work that way!!!
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2010
  11. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Your confusion is my confusion, unless I misunderstood your question

    There are 16 bands, one of which is Black Dyke (5/4 to win). 5/4 means that if the contest were to been played out in NINE seperate temporal realities then Dyke would win FOUR times, the other FIVE times they wouldn't win (hence 4/5)

    Again with Brighouse (7/1 to win). 7/1 means that if the contest were to been played out in EIGHT seperate temporal realities then B&R would win ONCE, the other SEVEN times they wouldn't win (hence 1/7).

    Where's the confusion in that?

    Except of course, if I were a REAL bookmaker - in it for the profit - then I would offer 4/6 instead of 4/5 so i cover both bases
     
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  13. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    Me confusing probability differentials with fractions it appears.... Maths never was my strong point! ;)

    I'll have a Virtual tenner on Fodens though, and another each way on Briggus....
     
  14. Anno Draconis

    Anno Draconis Well-Known Member

    Given the situation this year in Wales and Scotland, where a number of bands have declined their European invitations, what odds on the winner NOT subsequently representing England at the 2011 European at Montreux?
     
  15. Souter

    Souter Member


    And as it is the Europeans - can you give us the odds in Decimals a la European Betting :))
     
  16. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    No chance.

    Welsh & Scottish contests are there as qualifyers for the Albert Hall therefore if a winning band declines their Euro invite then clearly it wasn't what they were there to achieve in the first place. Also ALL bands have to attend those contests (as they would in the 6 English regionals) to maintain their Championship Section status.

    Any band entering the English National would be fully committed to competing at the Euros, otherwise - why enter? Look at Grimethorpe, clearly the Euros isn't on their radar at the moment.

    Jees you don't want much bang for ya buck do ya? :tongue:
    Maybe nearer the off, i'll consider it. Euro nationals, The European itself, yeah why not.
     
  17. Anno Draconis

    Anno Draconis Well-Known Member

    Fair point; I was more thinking along the lines of bands that enter the contest with the best intentions of going but find that they can't raise the money. After all, it's getting dearer every year.

    Bit of a moot point though, because it's hard to see past Dyke and Fodens and I'm pretty sure they could find the bunce for it.
     
  18. Aidan

    Aidan Active Member

    You mean that bands are getting more skint every year? :p


    2 tenners on leyland at those odds :)
     
  19. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Again I'd say next to no chance.

    Apart from Dyke & Fodens you have 3 what i'd call 'past masters' (B&R, Leyland & Fairey), they'd all go if only to re-live past glories.

    Of the rest of the field - if a stunned gasp result was announced - i'm sure they would move heaven & earth to find the shekles for the trip.
     
  20. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Black Dyke - 5/4 fav
    Foden’s - 9/4
    Brighouse & Rastrick - 7/1
    Leyland - 12/1
    Reg Vardy - 22/1
    Rothwell Temperance - 33/1
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 33/1 (from 40/1)
    Fairey (Geneva) - 40/1
    Virtuosi GUS - 50/1
    Camborne - 50/1
    Flowers - 50/1
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - 50/1
    Wingates - 100/1 (66/1)
    Hammonds Saltaire - 100/1 (150/1)
    Pemberton Old Wigan DW - 150/1
    Zone One Brass - 150/1
    Butlins (Hepworth, GUS, Flowers & Wingates)

    The Fancys - 2/13
    From the Pack - 9/2
    An Outsider - 13/2
     
  21. Anno Draconis

    Anno Draconis Well-Known Member

    According to 4BR 3rd favourite B&R are now a non-runner, replaced by Wire Brass.
     
  22. JesTperfect!

    JesTperfect! Member

    Interesting huh?

    Don't blame 'em though....can't say I'm much looking forward to Eden!


    *looks again at her part, runs away to a corner and starts sobbing*
     

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