Paddy's Albert Hall '09

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Sep 15, 2009.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    After drawing breath from Birmingham last weekend the circus moves south for it's date with Albert.

    Here's the latest betting for the 2009 Nationals, Championship Section
    (bands in bold played at the Open and their result is reflected in these latest prices)

    Cory - 9/4 fav (from 11/4)
    Black Dyke - 3/1
    Fodens - 11/2 (9/2)
    Rothwell Temperance - 16/1 (12/1)
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 22/1 (16/1)
    Fairey - 28/1 (25/1)
    Tredegar - 40/1 (33/1)
    Desford Colliery - 33/1 (40/1)
    Co-op Funeralcare - 40/1 (50/1)
    Carlton Main Frickley - 66/1 (50/1)
    Flowers - 66/1
    Kirkintilloch - 66/1 (100/1)
    Camborne Town - 200/1 (150/1)
    Reg Vardy - 200/1 (250/1)
    Redbridge Brass - 250/1 (200/1)
    Pemberton Old Wigan - 250/1 (200/1)
    EYMS - 350/1
    Northop - 500/1
    Newstead Brass - 500/1
    Zone One Brass - 500/1
     
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  3. ploughboy

    ploughboy Active Member

    I'll take a little E/W action on Tredegar. .
     
  4. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Well Leyland were placed at 40/1 so why not :tup
     
  5. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    What odds on a top three of dyke, cory and fodens, in any order?

    They're the three bands at the finals who finished highest at the open, and with no Grimethorpe, Briggus or Leyland to confuse things, I think there's a reasonable chance of them sharing the prizes at th'Albert 'all
     
  6. What are the odds of Steven Mead being in the box?
     
  7. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    Pretty long I'd say... ;)
     
  8. agentorange

    agentorange Member

    That's us down to 4th then. Cheers Andi............!! ;)
     
  9. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    I was only enquiring about the odds, Neil! ;)

    Given your performance 2 years ago when I was last in the hall mate, I'd say 350-1 is WELL worth a bet to place though. Everyone loves an upstart.... ;)

    Gotta think dyke are good value for the win though. They'll be smarting after the open, and will no doubt have all the motivation they need to return the favour to Corys.
     
  10. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Stranger things have happened. There's no Whitburns and I don't think he's making a one-off comeback with either Desford or Co-op.

    I'm gonna go for my usual (I have no idea) answer :biggrin:

    DOUBLE AXMINSTER - 33/1

    Care to comment SMead? ;)
     
  11. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    A tri-cast eh?...

    Ok. Dyke to win at 3/1
    Cory 2nd 6/4 (effectively their odds of winning if Dyke withdrew)
    £1 Forecast would payout £10.00

    Fodens 3rd 15/8 (by the same token)
    £1 tri-cast would payout £28.80

    Better clarify my E/W terms here as well. 20 runners in a non-handicap, 1/5 odds on a top 4 finish (thanks laserbeam) :clap:
     
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  13. David Mann

    David Mann Member

    What about a spread on the number of WWR comments following the contest?
     
  14. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    I think we've already established that SMead won't be there haven't we? :tongue:

    Ok, i'm gonna set the spread on a WWR thread having 73 posts within 3 days of the event
     
  15. Rob2

    Rob2 New Member

    Had a quiet day at work so decided to apply a bit of quasi statistical analysis to the nationals by working out how many times the bands competing the Nationals this year have been placed in the top six of major contests since 2000. (Open, Nationals, Masters, European).

    (Only done the 10 bands that competed in this years open since life is too short.)

    Results as % in top six. (Actual top 6/Total "majors")

    Cory 100% (27/27)
    Dyke 100% (20/20)
    Fodens 79% (22/28)
    Fairey 58% (14/24)
    Co-op 41% (9/22)
    Rothwell 29% (5/17)
    Carlton Main 28% (5/17)
    Desford 24% (4/17)
    Hepworth 20% (2/10)
    Kirkintilloch 18% (3/17)

    So based on hit rate alone and recklessly ignoring any current form my top six are: Cory, Dyke, Fodens, Fairey, Co-op, Rothwell.

    My top six in any order. Odds Please Mr Flower!
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2009
  16. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Let's update the odds first...

    Cory - 5/2 fav (from 9/4)
    Black Dyke - 3/1
    Fodens - 5/1 (11/2)
    Rothwell Temperance - 16/1
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 22/1
    Fairey - 28/1
    Desford Colliery - 28/1 (33/1)
    Tredegar - 33/1 (40/1)
    Co-op Funeralcare - 50/1 (40/1)
    Carlton Main Frickley - 66/1
    Flowers - 66/1
    Kirkintilloch - 100/1 (66/1)
    Reg Vardy - 200/1
    Camborne Town - 200/1
    Pemberton Old Wigan - 250/1
    Redbridge Brass - 250/1
    EYMS - 350/1
    Northop - 350/1 (500/1)
    Zone One Brass - 350/1 (500/1)
    Newstead Brass - 500/1


    So that top 6 in any order...

    150/1
     
  17. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    T-Minus 8 days and counting...

    A small amount of market movement since the last update but I can't see any last minute swings amongst the big boys.

    Cory - 5/2 fav
    Black Dyke - 3/1
    Fodens - 5/1
    Rothwell Temperance - 16/1
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 22/1
    Fairey - 25/1 (from 28/1)
    Desford Colliery - 28/1
    Tredegar - 33/1
    Co-op Funeralcare - 50/1
    Carlton Main Frickley - 50/1 (66/1)
    Flowers - 66/1
    Kirkintilloch - 100/1
    Reg Vardy - 200/1
    Pemberton Old Wigan - 250/1
    Redbridge Brass - 250/1
    Camborne Town - 250/1 (200/1)
    Northop - 350/1
    EYMS - 350/1
    Zone One Brass - 350/1
    Newstead Brass - 500/1

    Winning Area
    Yorkshire - 13/8 fav
    Wales - 11/5
    North West - 4/1
    Midlands - 25/1
    Scotland - 33/1
    West of England - 50/1
    North of England - 150/1
    L&SC - 150/1

    Winner NOT coming from Yorks, Wales or NW - 9/1
     
  18. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    I'll have a fiver on my tri-cast and see you in the bar afterwards.

    And a fiver each way on Rothwell. There's definitely a blinder in em somewhere waiting to come out, and this might be the year.
     
  19. bassendworld

    bassendworld Member

    Bout time we had a complete outsider winning the National I reckon, could this be the year.......
     
  20. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    You might be right but it's Hepworth who owe me after the Open result

    Care to name your dark horse(s)?
     
  21. bassendworld

    bassendworld Member

    I guess if any of the big 3 didn't win that would be a major surprise however I wonder if

    Tredegar or carlton Main might have a squeek

    and Zone One to surprise a few...top 6
     
  22. critic

    critic Member

    THEREis at leastnine.or ten bands that could make the top six as each are capable on any given day.
     

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