Paddy marks your card

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Sep 24, 2010.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Harrogate hosts the 19th running of a separate Lower Section national finals event and there is (as you would expect) some clear favourites, some long shots and (if you look carefully) some real value to be had at the bookies.

    First Section
    They’ve been playing their chances down but the punters’ clear fancy here are Freckleton @ 9/4 which in a field of EIGHTEEN rates as a steaming hot favourite. 14th at The Grand Shield last time out was about right for them and shows they’ll hold their own next term if they win here at get back in the Championship section. Yes they were beaten by the only other first section band at the event Hammonds Saltaire, but they’re not here to challenge them this time are they!

    Friary Guildford (5/1) have attracted lots of late money so they must be looking very good in the paddock. Winners last time out at SCABA Crawley but it was a cracking 4th spot at The Senior Trophy (and promotion up a level for next year) that really caught the eye.

    BartonTown (11/2) are an unusually well regarded North of England runner here at the finals. Last year’s runners-up are making their FIFTH consecutive appearance at these finals, 6th place in the 4th Section in 2006 being their worst result. What is unusual for one of these ‘super-nova’ bands is that they haven’t managed to collect a national crown along the way so they’re due, they are definitely due. They haven’t had a run out since the areas so they’ll be well rested and looking for some breakfast.

    Paddy will give you no better than 4/7 on the winner being one of these three.

    Three bands that are getting ignored by the punters are Bournemouth Concert (14/1), Meltham & Meltham Mills (16/1) and Wrexham Brass (18/1), ignore them at your peril!! Bournemouth haven’t become a bad band since winning the West of England in 2005. M&MM are Yorkshire champions (never a mean feat) and came a strong 2nd to Jackfield at Butlins in a field of TWENTY-FOUR prior to that. Wrexham were 2nd to Tredegar at the Eisteddfod last time out but are another band that had a fine return at The Spring Festival finishing 5th behind Friary in The Trophy

    HebdenBridge (14/1) are popular with the punters but I think they’ve got a lot to find in this field.
  2. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Second Section
    This is a much closer race with four or five real contenders, East London Brass are 100/30 favourites with Rainford Silver at a competitive 4/1, both have a strong challenge ready to mount. Neither have done much since the areas thou and the cockney boys had a real Devon Lock moment coming 7th at the aforementioned SCABA Crawley contest back in May in a field that should have presented no more than one or two genuine competitors.

    3rd favourites at 5/1 are South Yorkshire Police, they have been well backed in the offices down from 10/1. OK, they haven’t had a run since March but jockey Leigh Baker has been sweating it out in the sauna to make the weight for the weekend.

    Deiniolen Silver (14/1) are another popular bet in spite of only managing 4th in the second section at the Eisteddfod on their last canter out. A lot of people are talking up the chances of the squaddies Catterick Brass (18/1) too, they’re in from 66/1 but still have something to prove here as far as Paddy’s concerned.

    If you’re looking at making a few bob away from the main front runners look no further than Shrewton Silver (22/1) from the West of England. I first quoted them @ 9/1 which I still believe is a fairer reflection of their chances so real value to be found here from a band that’s been quietly going about their business over the last few years. They’ll sweat up nicely in the paddock before the off.
  3. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Third Section
    Here’s where the North-West area’s dominance of the lower sections is going to show. Delph (9/4 fav) are the pick of the field for me. Since relegation last year they’re unbeaten in 2010 with TWO strong victories, the area (from the No. 1 draw in a field of NINETEEN!!) and Butlins, both wins where achieved with jockey Philip Goodwin barely needing to lift the whip.

    Hoover Bolton (4/1) & Cheshire Constabulary (7/1) accompany them and it’s 8/13 on one of these three stallions finding a home in the winners enclosure.

    Beyond these we have two more strong runners in Fulham Brass (13/2) & Shirebrook MW Unison (8/1). Neither one has been given a start since the areas so they’ll both be chomping at the bit. The former have been the ‘gamble’ of the field being backed in from 16/1. The latter are the ‘value’ of the field, 8/1 is a great price.

    Other than that this market seems to have behaved itself although I think Sidmouth Town @ 33/1 is a terrific each-way bet, perhaps they would’ve hoped for higher than 4th at SWBBA Exmouth a couple of weeks ago but they are better than the punters are giving them credit for.
  4. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Fourth Section
    As close to The Grand National as we’re gonna get this weekend with 21 runners going to post and again the North-West area looks very dominant. Hazel Grove Brass haven’t moved from their 11/4 price for a few weeks now and look likely to be sent off as favourites. A few winning betting slips where being raised in celebration at Blackpool in March when they defied the odds to win @ 14/1 but silenced any remaining doubters at Buxton in May with another fine victory in a none-to-shabby field.

    Whilst the exploits of Dinnington Colliery (5/1) and Sue Perkins have been well documented on the BBC, Besses’ Boys (13/2) have as always, been a busy contesting band of late. A distant 5th to the favourite at Buxton then ran a close 2nd behind Darwen Brass at The Tameside Open since qualifying in March.

    A severely over-looked runner makes up another strong North-West trio here. Farnworth & Walkden are far better than their 10/1 price suggests so get some hard-earned bonce on them now I say. They’ve performed well at this level of late and will do just as well when they go up a grade for 2011.

    NASUWT Riverside Concert (12/1) are THE major gamble of this whole contest, a group of very confident punters has forced Paddy to slash their odds down from 50/1 (I hope you know what you’re doing guys…). Confident noises too for Upper Rhondda Brass (22/1) and Market Rasen RPC (28/1) have seen their respective prices plummet in recent weeks.

    Each-way value is to be found with Shipston Town (28/1) and I think Langholm Town (66/1) are undeserving of their rank outsider tag and could sneak in to frame.

Share This Page