Paddy goes Ante-post (Areas 2010)

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Sep 29, 2009.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    A number of contests between now and then but let's have an early look at the various Championship Sections for next March.

    These line-ups are (in most cases) as per the grading tables on the various areas websites, let me know if you know different

    London & Southern Counties
    Redbridge Brass - 7/2 fav
    Aveley & Newham - 9/2
    Zone One Brass - 13/2
    Norfolk Brass - 9/1
    KM Medway - 14/1
    Clacton-on-Sea Co-operative - 14/1
    Wantage Silver - 16/1
    Kidlington Concert Brass - 16/1
    Bedford Town - 28/1
    Milton Keynes Brass - 33/1
    Sandhurst Silver - 33/1
    City of Cambridge - 50/1

    easily the most open of the 8 areas
  2. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Desford Colliery - 5/6 fav
    Virtuosi GUS - 9/2
    Newstead Welfare - 11/1
    Sovereign Brass - 18/1
    Thoresby Colliery - 18/1
    Glossop Old - 33/1
    Jaguar (Coventry) - 66/1
    Staffordshire - 66/1
    Ratby Cooperative - 100/1
    Kibworth - 100/1
    Gresley Colliery - 250/1
    Phoenix West Midlands - 350/1
  3. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    North of England
    Reg Vardy - 11/8 fav
    EYMS - 5/1
    Fishburn - 11/2
    NASUWT Riverside - 6/1
    Kirkbymoorside Town - 33/1
    Felling - 40/1
    Easington Colliery - 66/1
    Lockwood Brass - 66/1
    GT Group Peterlee - 66/1
    Shepherd Building Group - 100/1
  4. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Fodens - 5/6 fav
    Leyland - 3/1
    Fairey - 11/1
    Wingates - 25/1
    Bactiguard Wire Brass - 28/1
    United Norwest Co-op Milnrow - 40/1
    Pemberton Old Wigan JJB - 50/1
    Ashton-under-Lyne - 250/1
    United Co-op (Crewe) - 250/1
    Roberts Bakery - 350/1
    Blackburn & Darwen - 500/1
  5. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Co-operative Funeralcare - 11/10 fav
    Kirkintilloch - 2/1
    Whitburn - 16/1
    Kingdom Brass - 22/1
    Bon Accord Silver - 28/1
    Newtongrange Silver - 50/1
    Dalmellington - 66/1
    Kirkintilloch Kelvin - 100/1
    Unison Kinneil - 150/1
    Clackmannan District - 200/1
  6. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member


    This market would look a little ridiculous if I left Cory in as I would start them at 1/11 (That's ELEVEN-TO-ONE ON favorites) with the outsiders in the thousands :eek: . What i'll do instead is is quote the rest of this market WITHOUT Cory..

    Tredegar - 6/5 fav
    BTM - 11/2
    Beaumaris - 15/2
    Tongwynlais Temperance - 8/1
    Burry Port Town - 12/1
    Northop Silver - 25/1
    Newbridge (Celynen) - 66/1
    Cwmaman Institute Silver - 100/1
    Point of Ayr - 100/1
    Penclawdd Brass - 200/1
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2009
  7. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    West of England
    Flowers - 6/5 fav
    Camborne Town - 11/2
    Mount Charles - 8/1
    Woodfalls - 9/1
    Lydbrook - 16/1
    Poole Borough - 28/1
    Helston Town - 40/1
    Sherborne Town - 40/1
    Aldbourne - 66/1
    Yeovil Town - 66/1
    St. Keverne - 150/1
  8. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Black Dyke - Evens fav
    Grimethorpe Colliery - 4/1
    Brighouse & Rastirck - 6/1
    Hepworth (Cookson Homes) - 14/1
    Rothwell Temperance - 40/1 no disrespect meant but lightening rarely strikes twice
    Carlton Main Frickley Colliery - 66/1
    Skelmanthorpe - 66/1
    Marsden Silver Prize (Ossett Brewery) - 100/1
    Powerfuel Hatfield Colliery - 100/1
    Wakefield Metropolitan - 350/1
    Stannington - 350/1
    Drighlington - 2000/1
    Old Silkstone - 3500/1

    I could have done the same and left Dyke out but Evens is a bit different to 1/11
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2009
  9. Thirteen Ball

    Thirteen Ball Active Member

    I don't see how losing weight changes anything.... ;)
  10. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    Spellchecker is for girls :biggrin:
  11. Lydbrook - 16/1 i'll take a punt on those odds :D
  12. ploughboy

    ploughboy Active Member

    I'll take rothwell too, for me they were well worth it this year, as they went on to prove at the Grand Shield. Besides, by then they'll have pre-qualified for the nationals next year and the pressure will be off!
  13. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    What are the place terms if any?

    If you are offering 2 @ 1/4 I'll take a pony each way on Zone One @ 13/2
    If you are win only I'll have a bullseye on Zone One @ 13/2
  14. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    As you have correctly pointed out this is a non-handicap so e/w terms are 1/5 odds on top 3
  15. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    16/1 is subject to review depending on who Steve Sykes has been sharing an adjudicators box with... :tongue:
  16. ophicliede

    ophicliede Member

    Hey Paddy don't really understand this betting lark, but are you doing the odds on current form or popularity like you did for the lower section finals. The TMP predictions are more on popularity than current form are they not? We prefered the 4barsrest prediction for the third section, not that we always do.
  17. Laserbeam bass

    Laserbeam bass Active Member

    In that case a pony e/w on Zone One (Best odds Guaranteed :pig )
  18. Di B

    Di B Member

    Surprised at your odds on the Yorks top section.

    Can you really have over 1000-1 odds on a 12 horse race??? Old Sikstone and Drig are not the only outsiders - seems odd they have much higher odds than the others?
  19. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    My opening odds (as you see in this thread) are based on current form. I then adjust them (as any bookie would) as we go along.

    I use the tmp predictions in a small way as people, for the most part, try and predict the result as they see it in order to score points. I treat these predictions as if they were bets received and so the market is active, bands lengthen, bands shorten. I don't agree with you when you say the predictions are a popularity contest otherwise I would ignore them.

    I'm interested in 4br's predictions just to see how they stack-up to mine, I don't attempt to incorporate them into my odds. They have IMHO been a little too pro-welsh apart from anything else (I'm not going to get into any debates with anyone on this last sentence, I know i'm not the only one who has thought this way)

    There's my bit of controversy for the day :biggrin:
  20. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    These are my opinions based on extensive research of past contests and current form. In the lower sections (when I publish them) you will see that the outsiders aren't in the thousands, perhaps only hundreds to one. In the top flight there is a huge gulf between the top bands and those yo-yo bands who come up and down.

    I checked the odds of the Premier League for this season back in July before a ball was kicked. The outsiders (Barnsley, Portsmouth etc..) ranged between 2000 and 10000/1 on some sites.

    Can you find an example of a band who went into a Championship Section area as RANK outsiders going on to win? If you can find ONE then I would suggest that is one in 500 contests since 1945(?), or 500/1.

    Have I made my point?