Old Paddy's Almanack 2010

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by Paddy Flower, Nov 28, 2009.

  1. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    I'm already on record with my thoughts on the destinations of various area titles next March, but what about later in the year? I'm going to pose a few questions and then answer them IMHO. I'd welcome comments and suggestions for other questions.

    I'm going to start off with my predictions of who might be smiling at the Lower Section Nationals in 2010.

    First Section
    Hammonds Saltaire (Yorks) despite their recent problems the strongest of favorites, clearly NOT a first section band
    Vernon Building Society Poynton (NW)
    Barton Town (Nth)

    Second Section
    East London Brass (L&SC)
    Frickley/South Elmsall (Yorks)
    Brunel Brass (West) a possible double?

    Third Section
    Douglas Town (NW) they've been creeping under most people's radars
    North Skelton (Nth)
    Cubbington Silver (Mids)

    Fourth Section
    Boarshurst Silver (NW) also likely to be thumbing their noses at their area committee for relegating them. National favorites by a distance for me at the moment
    Dronfield CMW (Mids)
    Pontypool Brass (Wales)
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2009
  2. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    New into their section

    And what about the most likely, newly prom/rel band taking a title...

    Championship Section
    prom Tongwynlais

    First Section
    rel (other than Hammonds) Aldborne (West)
    prom Oldham Lees (NW) sorry Melingriffith

    Second Section
    rel Knottingly Silver (Yorks) or RAF St. Athan (Wal)
    prom (other than Brunel) Coalburn Silver (Sco)

    Third Section
    rel Hoover Bolton (NW)
    prom St. Breward Silver (West)

    Fourth Section
    rel (other than Boarshurst) Tayport Instrumental (Sco)
  3. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    The Pride of the Area

    One last one for now, what about each regional's best hope of a winner in the lower sections?... (not including those already mentioned)

    London & Southern Counties
    Friary Guildford Brass (1st Section)

    Amington Brass (3rd Section)

    North of England
    East Riding of Yorkshire (4th Section)

    North West
    Hazel Grove Brass (4th Section)

    Renfrew Burgh (3rd Section)

    Tylorstown (2nd Section)

    West of England
    St. Austell (1st Secion)

    Strata Brass (2nd Section)
  4. iancwilx

    iancwilx Well-Known Member

    You don't reckon Yorkshire Imps will do anything in the 1st Section then ?

    It's going to be a tough call for most of the 1st Section bands at the Yorkshire Area with Hammonds and Imps in the line up.

    - Mr Wilx
  5. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    I think it's likely Imps will go to the finals with Hammonds, but it's HS that are more likely to a 'Tong' than Imps repeating their own feat of 2005. Maybe I should have added their name to that of Aldbourne

    I don't think the two will have it all their own way, Stocksbridge are likely to have a say, as are Hebden Bridge & Holme Silver who've both improved over the last few years.
  6. Getzonica

    Getzonica Active Member

    Out of curiousity, how do you work out the predictions?
  7. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    I have answered this one on another thread, but I cant find which one.

    Basically I do a full study of all contest results and collate a form table based on those results. I use the ratings I come up with to work out a likely win percentage for each band entering a contest and then convert these percentages to betting odds. Simple really
  8. Getzonica

    Getzonica Active Member

  9. Alyn James

    Alyn James Member

  10. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

  11. Columbo

    Columbo Member

  12. towse1972

    towse1972 Active Member

    Read the very 1st post Jason. It explains everything.....
  13. Paddy Flower

    Paddy Flower Active Member

    From post #1

    You may blush at your leisure Columbo....
  14. Kofi

    Kofi Member

    I think what you do is brilliant, I just hope to see my band feature in the years to come...

    Incidentally, you said on another post that you get the gradings from the area websites. So far there are no tables on www.sbba.org.uk so is there somewhere else you got that or am I clicking the wrong links??

  15. towse1972

    towse1972 Active Member

    Jason doesnt blush..He has more front than Blackpool! A legend in his own front room! ;)
  16. Columbo

    Columbo Member

  17. towse1972

    towse1972 Active Member

    And on the very distinguished conducting front.....????
  18. towse1972

    towse1972 Active Member

    I assume with all these very timid responses you are;
    a) trying to remain dignified! lol
    b) waiting for someone to say what a nice geezer you are.

    How long till your conducting someone else Columbo....or ditching ashton when the pressures of working nd banding take their toll.....i wait with baited breath about any developments regarding your distinguished banding career! ;)
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2009
  19. Alyn James

    Alyn James Member

    Columbo strikes me as being an uncommonly nice geezer.
  20. Columbo

    Columbo Member

    Thank you Alyn. You are correct of course. Seasons Greetings and all the best for 2010. No one is impressed by her bullying ways.