Lower section finals-2014-predictions ?

Discussion in 'The Adjudicators' Comments' started by The Godfather, Sep 8, 2014.

  1. The Godfather

    The Godfather Member

    Hello folks.
    Not much on TMP about this event (unless I've missed it of course) Is anyone going, apart from the competing bands?
    There are a few cryptic comments floating around regarding tickets etc, but nobody seems very interested in predictions. I don't know much about it but will certainly be paying a visit this year if only to meet up with my friend PEDDLER who is currently working as a 'ringer' in a band full of the same over the Pennines from me.
    Certainly missing PADDY POWER for that list of outrageous predictions, also looking forward to some adjudication reactions from Hitler. I'm still laughing at his comments on intonation and 'That Mountain S++T'

  2. Ianroberts

    Ianroberts Well-Known Member

    Ifton to win the 4th section ! Why am I so sure ? Because im not playing.
  3. JimboFB

    JimboFB Active Member

    I've said it before but Filton Concert should be in the frame in the first section.

    They have also recruited well recently in anticipation of the jump up to the Champ sectioin and seem to have a settled bunch of players.

    Also have the magic of Tom Davoren at the helm to shape things nicely!

    Should be one to watch!!!
  4. tat

    tat Member

    Stacksteads will take some beating in the 4th section
  5. David Evans

    David Evans Active Member

    Oh dear, that's us stuffed then
  6. Agree with that!!

  7. Agree with that!
  8. Adamskied

    Adamskied Member

    Sandhurst I think could do it with Ian Mcgelligot at the helm.

    Also Thundersley should do well.
  9. The Godfather

    The Godfather Member

    I agree with your comment. I was out on Whit Friday and heard them at two locations. A very very good band indeed with a lot of experienced players, and led by a gentleman who certainly knows a thing or two about banding.
    The North West have some excellent contenders at all levels.
  10. FlugelCave

    FlugelCave New Member

    I hope so :)

    I've heard a rumour that there are only 11 entries in the first section out of 17 qualified bands. Is this true?
  11. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

    Here's some super-dodgy predictions then. No science behind them, just vague thoughts on form and underratedness. And, as per usual, the further down the sections one goes, the dodgier they get, as more and more bands are less and less well known and have less extensive contesting records.

    First section:
    1: Goodwick - bit of an unknown quantity outside Wales, but on a meteoric rise. Pipped at the area this year, which was their only failure to win in their last nine outings. 2013 2nd section national champions.
    2: Staffordshire - should have been promoted last year after being pipped for 2nd at this contest. Results this year not so hot - maybe I'm being generous?
    3: Filton - 6th here last year, and by accounts a better band now.
    4: Llwydcoed - won the Welsh area, always an impressive feat. But results since not quite so strong.
    5: Sandhurst - consistent and solid performers, particularly at this level.
    6: Enderby - sometimes they click (area, Leicester), sometimes they don't (Butlins - mind you, many other good bands have a rough time in lower section results there). But when they do, the results are good.

    As always, the first section final is a deceptively difficult contest to place well at. There are plenty more bands there that it wouldn't be at all surprising to see place well, including Thundersley, City of Bradford, Oldham and Hatfield. There's almost never a band in this contest (or any of the other lower section finals, of course, but this one is always particularly keenly fought, in my opinion) that doesn't thoroughly deserve to be there.

    Second section:
    1: Mossley - four Butlins titles in a row suggests a band that is clearly misgraded - has managed to at last get themselves promoted out of the NW 2nd section.
    2: Tullis Russell - strong contenders from Scotland that after a number of years of promising to click seem to have done so, with promotion, and a number of higher section contesting scalps taken this year.
    3: Parc and Dare - very solid performers at this level in the last year or two. Great to see a fine old banding name making a comeback too.
    4: Forest of Dean - bouncing back from relegation last year with a solid series of results.
    5: Elland - they can certainly play a good march and hymn tune... They've done nothing else contestwise since winning the Yorkshire area, picking up notable scalps.
    6: Fulham - inconsistent results (the Butlins curse again), but when they click, they do well.

    Not so many fancied contenders here, for my money, with the area results of many of the competitors being the standout results of their recent contesting history.

    Third section:
    1: Ebbw Valley Brass - perhaps the only band in the world that can put Goodwick's recent contesting record to shame. 17 wins in their last 22 contesting efforts (and no placings off the podium at all) is an extraordinary achievement, and suggests that they ought to be graded much higher than they currently are. Also notably keen on cramming the contests in, with that sequence of 22 having taken place since Nov 2012.
    2: Dinnington Colliery - 4 1st prizes in the last year; evidently also on the way up.
    3: East Riding of Yorkshire - 7th placed last year at the same event, and consistently high area results.
    4: Ammanford - solid performers at or around this level for many years. Overshadowed in Wales by Ebbw Valley right now, but never to be underestimated.
    5: Northumbrian Water Ellington - some strong results since relegation last year.
    6: Darwen - consistently good results at this level in the last few years.

    A few others well worth a mention for minor placings - e.g. Rushden, Norfolk Wherry - but I'll be impressed if any other band manages to crack this top two, with Ebbw Valley being short-priced favourites.

    Fourth section:
    1: Ifton Colliery - 3rd here last year, and 4 victories in their last 7 contests.
    2: Jubilee Brass (Oxford) - some strong contesting form of late for this band that rehearses less than a mile from me, including an impressive win in the 3rd section at Bugle.
    3: North Skelton - 4 wins in 2013 and 2014. Another fine old banding name rising.
    4: Camborne Junior Contesting - some apparent internal restructuring at Camborne in the last few years - a new youth band in the lower sections is probably going to be a force to be reckoned with...
    5: Northop Brass - contest results are sparse but good... And the A band is a fine example to live up to.
    6: Corsham - win at area, 2nd at WSM.

    By this point, I am reduced to quite a bit of guesswork. Bands contest less, and rise and fall more rapidly. The top three I've suggested look a good bet for the winner between them, but you never know.

    There you go, Godfather, plenty of slightly informed opinion to get your teeth stuck into...
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2014
  12. LynneW

    LynneW Member

    Dave, I agree about Jubilee Brass. I heard them at Stevenage and there was no doubt that they were the winners (from bands I'd heard)
  13. Chris Hicks

    Chris Hicks Member

    Given the experience of your conductor, as well as recent signings I imagine thundersley should be up there!
  14. Simon_Horn

    Simon_Horn Member

    and Enderby Adam!
  15. Adamskied

    Adamskied Member

    Sorry simon. Not heard Enderby recently.

    But with you at the helm
    how can they not win.....
  16. The Godfather

    The Godfather Member

    I take my hat off to you Dave. A statistician par excellence. Did someone once refer to you as 'The Pope' on all matters brass banding' ?, and before you respond with 'can an atheist be the pope' I use the term to imply 'Father of all brass band data' no religious connotations intended.
    Your predictions will certainly be printed off and pulled out of the pocket on 20/21 Sept. I have no doubt that they will be better than 'owt' (I am now a student of the Yorkshire dialect) that 4BR will produce.
    My thanks and fraternal greetings to you.
  17. The Godfather

    The Godfather Member

    One thing more Moomin Dave.
    Not much data on Stacksteads.
    They have been absent from the contesting arena for some time. but I will be surprised if, having seen and heard them very recently under the capable direction of the greatly experienced and revered 'Bonker Bowker' they are not in the frame. Still, even the 'Pope' can't know everything.
  18. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

    All I did was browse BBR a bit and write down a few likely names, I'm afraid. Like I say, not a very rigorous manoeuvre. You might like to note that when Paddy was running his fantasy league, I spent more time out of the top division than in it!
  19. The Godfather

    The Godfather Member

    Never the less your analysis is appreciated, the more so because it is done without bias or favour, and as such reflects an impartial opinion. Rare to find on this site I might add!
    What ever happened to Paddy ? (Or should this be a new thread? )
  20. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

    I fear the worst with Paddy... The huge amount of time he put in on his band stats could only have been achieved by someone who didn't have much else to do, and as a project would have well suited an old retired bander not in great health. He disappeared very suddenly, and in the middle of a lot of things. Hope he's still out there somewhere, but it's hard to avoid the thought that he might not be.