Early Draw, what effect ?

Discussion in 'The Rehearsal Room' started by euphalogy, Feb 22, 2010.

  1. euphalogy

    euphalogy Member

    As we approach the annual get togethers and the ritual "what if " "ah well" scenarios that the regionals always induce, i was wondering what effect, if any, does knowing that your band has an early draw have.
    My band is the furthest band North East in the Midand region(market rasen), and have been pre drawn in the early draw for the past 8 years that they have competed. A 5am rise and shine and 6am departure from Grimsby fills the players with deep joy and anticipation :) and the prospect of a "blow" before hand is a real cause for celebration.
    Does anybody ever have any success in the the early part of the draw in a field of 25? i havent researched this, however, my experience in the midland region suggests it is the later bands in the lower sections that prevail. Good luck to everybody though.:tup
  2. Elliebone

    Elliebone Member

    We were in the morning draw last year and came 2nd - although we were towards the end of the morning lot - number 11 I think?

    I agree that the early start is the best incentive I can think of to try and get out of the 4th section. It might not make much difference at the Area but it sure does in every other contest you ever go to!!

    Good luck - hope to hear you!
  3. basebonetone

    basebonetone Member

    Early/Late draw

    Real physiological effects of late/early draw-we play in the champ section at yorkshire area-we're going all out to win but a number 1/2 draw could seriously affect our chances-fingers crossed!! There have been various polls/analysis done on this subject which speak for themselves and I have been on both ends as an adjudicator and performer and must say in my opinion early late draws do affect your chances of success!
  4. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

    Just ran a correlation on Butlins 1st Section 2010
    Coefficient for draw v. placing was -0.16
    This means...
    1) There is not much of a correlation (would need to be at least +/-0.3 to mean anything, +/-0.5 to be strong)
    2) If you were to state there is a correlation, it is negative meaning, earlier bands do better.

    It's all in the head
  5. WoodenFlugel

    WoodenFlugel Moderator Staff Member

    I reckon if you play well you should be placed somewhere about right whatever your draw - I can think of several times where bands have won off the dreaded No. 1 spot for instance. But if you're mediocre then you may get a worse placing than you might if you were drawn later - especially if its a big field, basically you get forgotten about in the great big morass of also-rans. Of course I say this with absolutely no figures to back up what I've said!

    But I guess the moral is - make sure you play well whatever the draw - ultimately its down to you and your players, not where you were drawn. :)
  6. ploughboy

    ploughboy Active Member

    early draw = bigger hangover.
  7. Pav

    Pav Member

    Sample sizes of 1 always make for good statistics.

    Also, doesn't this assume all bands have an equal chance of winning and the draw is the only factor.

    I have absolutely no doubt that the draw has an effect in big fields but there's nothing you can do about it. Go on, play the piece and convince the adjudicator you should be in the frame. That's all you can do. Maybe you come 2nd or 3rd on a performance that would have won later in the day.
  8. ploughboy

    ploughboy Active Member

    I would say in a field of 8 - 12 bands then it doesn't have a significant bearing, but in a larger field I wouldn't want to be on 1st. There are 11 bands in the Yorkshire 2nd Section next week, I wouldn't mind number 1 and a warm up on the queen . . .
  9. tubafran

    tubafran Active Member

    Gary if you get drawn 1st could you make it Fat Bottomed Girls? I like that one....
  10. Masterblaster jnr

    Masterblaster jnr Active Member

    Did two bands not win two of the sections at Preston recently off No.1? I guess it's all down to the performance itself. If you lay down a solid marker, then the judges will be comparing bands aginst you. Lay down a pretty pathetic attempt of a marker, and then you're out of it and the second band will give the 'marker' Having said that in a field of 25, the placings between 7 and 22 will probably be a lottery anyway.
  11. E flat fred

    E flat fred Member

    Reply to last post. You are correct. 2 bands won off No 1 draw.
    Our band has also won off No. 1 draw.
    It is the performance that counts not the draw number, but it does give you a reasonable excuse if you do not win and you are drawn NUMBER 1.
  12. DublinBass

    DublinBass Supporting Member

    n=24 for that one

    so there are some confounding variables ;-)
  13. MoominDave

    MoominDave Well-Known Member

    Would be interesting with a bigger sample, though.

    Would be even more interesting to break it down by adjudicator!
  14. Alyn James

    Alyn James Member

    None....relax and strut ya stuff! :)
  15. ian perks

    ian perks Active Member

    Played last in 2007 1st section midland area WON/18
    Played last in midland area Championship Section 1980 LAST/19
  16. animal.22

    animal.22 Member

    Wot he sed!!!!:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
  17. Cornet_Matt

    Cornet_Matt Member

    Personally I haven't been phased by a poor draw, and I don't think about 'what could have been' if we had a better one. My band (Blackburn & Darwen) always seem to get either drawn either first or last, and as results have proven this doesn't seem to bother us at all. However, an early draw can be a headache if the contest begins early in the morning, as for most bands this would mean a painstakingly early get-up.
    (Though nothing beats the headache of a 9.15 lecture after a night out might i add :D )
  18. tubalation

    tubalation Member

    I vaguely recall Ron Massey doing an article in the bandsman many years ago looking at either the Open or the National top section (i.e. ~ 20 runners) and suggesting that the number of bands in the last quarter of the draw which got a 'podium' (i.e top 3) place was higher than a flat distribution may suggest.

    Saddo that I am I've just looked at the draw positions of the top 3 bands in the last 5 year's top section Nationals and Open results from the 4BR results archive:

    2009: 5, 9, 6
    2008: 11, 6, 14
    2007: 18, 6, 11
    2006: 16, 8, 4
    2005: 5, 17, 6

    So, splitting into each quarter of the 20 band draw:
    3 prizes from the first 5 bands, 6 prizes from bands 6-10, 3 prizes from bands 11-15 and 3 from bands 16-20: Looks like it's actually best to play when the adjudicators have got to grips with the piece, are looking forward to lunch and haven't got too bored with it...

    2009: 6, 16, 3
    2008: 10, 6, 11
    2007: 16, 15, 3
    2006: 11, 17, 12
    2005: 13, 16, 14

    So, splitting into each third of the 18 band draw:
    4 prizes from the first 6 bands, 4 prizes from the middle 6 bands and 7 prizes from the last 6 bands.

    Of course, this is still a small sample and on current form you would probably expect at least two of Cory, Dyke and Fodens to finish in the prizes, regardless of where they were drawn ;) ! (no disrespect to Hepworth, Redbridge, Rothwell etc who can give them a run for their money, but don't seem to have quite such consistency)

    So just go to each contest, play your best / what your MD has asked you to do, and accept the result graciously (but if you do qualify for London, pray for number 6 by the look of it...)

    BBb Newstead and definitely not Paddy Flower (it goes against my Methodist principles:oops:)
  19. Pav

    Pav Member

    Really not wanted to get into an arguement over stats (I'm fairly sure you'd win). Just saying that looking at one contest and expecting the result to go:

    Draw Place
    1 27
    2 26
    3 25

    maybe isn't going to prove much.

    Anyhoo, I'm as sad as anyone else on here so put some thought into it and came up with this.

    I looked at Dyke's results at the Open over the last 20 odd years. Chose Dyke because you'd expect them to be consistenly there or thereabouts over a number of years, so it maybe takes out the effect of just not playing that well on a given day.


    They were out of the top 6 in 1987 off number 11 and didn't compete in 1997 (which I think was the year the Open which was postponed. Stopped at 1983 because I really must do some work.

    I think the correlation there is -0.7, which is relatively strong. I did have a pretty scattergraph but no idea how to insert it!

    You can make of it what you will but Dyke haven't won on a number 10 draw or worse in this time and have finished 6th or worse on draws earlier than 7 (roughly the first third of the runners) on 5 occassions. Finally, they haven't finished outside the top 4 with a second half draw (11 or better). This is all a lot easier to see with the pretty scattergraph!.

    I'm not saying you can't win, or do well off an early draw, just saying it's a bit harder. There's nowt you can do about it anyway, so just go on, play well and look forward to the extended sesh in the bar.

    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 24, 2010
  20. Pav

    Pav Member

    The moral of this is always check your post looks ok before posting. Ran out of time to edit. The data is:

    Year Draw Place
    1983 13 1
    1984 11 2
    1985 19 1
    1986 15 1
    1988 13 2
    1989 19 4
    1990 4 8
    1991 3 10
    1992 11 1
    1993 7 2
    1994 16 2
    1995 15 1
    1996 1 14
    1998 7 8
    1999 22 2
    2000 15 2
    2001 14 2
    2002 3 3
    2003 11 3
    2004 6 6
    2005 13 1
    2006 11 1
    2007 15 2
    2008 1 6
    2009 16 2

    That'll have to do, because I really should do some work now!

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